AWPtimistic
A case on CSGORoll (awp), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.70
8.14 coins
Advertised RTP
90.87%
EV $5.18 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.49%
15.4K openings, odds method
Variance
691.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 5,000 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 40.9% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $17.51 25.01 coins | 16.9% | 782 | 769.3 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $12.05 17.21 coins | 11.6% | 757 | 769.3 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $9.83 14.05 coins | 9.5% | 811 | 769.3 | 1.05× |
| AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $3.30 4.71 coins | 3.2% | 735 | 769.3 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.85 2.64 coins | 7.1% | 3,043 | 3077.0 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.83 2.62 coins | 7.1% | 3,156 | 3077.0 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.80 1.15 coins | 3.1% | 3,072 | 3077.0 | 1.00× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $0.14 0.2 coins | 0.5% | 3,027 | 3073.9 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $5.70 | 90.87% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $5.70 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $5.70 | 90.92% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.70 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.71 | 90.92% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $5.77 | 90.86% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $5.77 | 90.93% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.77 | 90.95% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%industrial 25.0%classified 10.0%restricted 65.0%best hit $10.8K (1,877x)