Aztec Case

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$165.68

237 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $150.62 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.62%

305 openings, odds method

Variance

6.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

46 openings · below min

7 days

78.03%±29.98279 openings

30 days

78.62%±28.68305 openings

since tracking started

78.62%±28.68305 openings

11.0%85.0%159.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	46	84.92%±73.4	—	odds
7d	279	78.03%±30.0	−0.8σ	odds
30d	305	78.62%±28.7	−0.8σ	odds
All	305	78.62%±28.7	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 305 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$1,900 2,715 coins	63.1%	13	15.3	0.85×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$587 838 coins	19.5%	11	15.3	0.72×
AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert	22.5%	$85.40 122 coins	12.8%	75	68.6	1.09×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	22.5%	$26.10 37.28 coins	3.9%	60	68.6	0.87×
CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	22.5%	$3.21 4.58 coins	0.5%	74	68.6	1.08×
M249 \| Aztec (Factory New)weapon · restricted	22.5%	$2.04 2.91 coins	0.3%	72	68.6	1.05×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$164234 coins$1,9142,735 coins11.67x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$164234 coins$1,9142,735 coins11.67x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$164234 coins$1,9142,735 coins11.67x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinarytashud$164234 coins$1,9142,735 coins11.67x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M249 | Aztec (Factory New)weapon · restricted$166237 coins$2.042.91 coins0.01x1h

CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$166237 coins$3.214.58 coins0.02x1h

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert$166237 coins$85.40122 coins0.52x1h

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$166237 coins$26.1037.28 coins0.16x1h

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covertKickerrrrrrrr$166237 coins$85.40122 coins0.52x1h

CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$166237 coins$3.214.58 coins0.02x14h

M249 | Aztec (Factory New)weapon · restricted$166237 coins$2.042.91 coins0.01x14h

M249 | Aztec (Factory New)weapon · restrictedI AM THE PIRATE KING$166237 coins$2.042.91 coins0.01x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$166	90.91%	6
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$166	90.91%	6
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$164	90.91%	6

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 10.0%covert 45.0%mil spec 22.5%restricted 22.5%best hit $1,914 (11.67x)