Backstab

A case on CSGORoll (10%, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$50.47

72.1 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $45.88 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.22%

485 openings, odds method

Variance

6.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

73.46%±26.56365 openings

30 days

85.22%±23.04485 openings

since tracking started

85.22%±23.04485 openings

46.5%77.8%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	365	73.46%±26.6	−1.3σ	odds
30d	485	85.22%±23.0	−0.5σ	odds
All	485	85.22%±23.0	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 485 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 500	$1,474 2,105 coins	6.4%	1	1.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 125	$804 1,148 coins	14.0%	4	3.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$605 864 coins	26.4%	7	9.7	0.72×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$348 497 coins	7.6%	6	4.9	1.24×
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$192 274 coins	4.2%	3	4.9	0.62×
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$122 175 coins	8.0%	17	14.5	1.17×
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$73.50 105 coins	3.2%	8	9.7	0.82×
Trapper Aggressor \| Guerrilla Warfareagent · distinguished	30.0%	$22.20 31.71 coins	14.5%	137	145.5	0.94×
'Two Times' McCoy \| USAF TACPagent · superior	30.0%	$12.73 18.18 coins	8.3%	146	145.5	1.00×
Arno The Overgrown \| Guerrilla Warfareagent · superior	30.0%	$11.30 16.14 coins	7.4%	156	145.5	1.07×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$51.7673.94 coins$1,4152,022 coins27.35x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$51.7673.94 coins$8491,213 coins16.41x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertPhiliacos$51.7673.94 coins$8491,213 coins16.41x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$51.7673.94 coins$8491,213 coins16.41x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$51.7673.94 coins$8491,213 coins16.41x7d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$51.7673.94 coins$629899 coins12.16x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLars$51.7673.94 coins$629899 coins12.16x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$51.7673.94 coins$629899 coins12.16x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedPhiliacos$51.7673.94 coins$629899 coins12.16x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$50.4772.1 coins$605864 coins11.98x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Trapper Aggressor | Guerrilla Warfareagent · distinguished$50.4772.1 coins$22.2031.71 coins0.44x23h

'Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACPagent · superior$50.4772.1 coins$12.7318.18 coins0.25x23h

★ Flip Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$50.4772.1 coins$122175 coins2.43x23h

Trapper Aggressor | Guerrilla Warfareagent · distinguished$50.4772.1 coins$22.2031.71 coins0.44x23h

'Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACPagent · superior$50.4772.1 coins$12.7318.18 coins0.25x23h

Arno The Overgrown | Guerrilla Warfareagent · superiorAWP GOD$50.4772.1 coins$11.3016.14 coins0.22x23h

Trapper Aggressor | Guerrilla Warfareagent · distinguishedbmfaby$50.4772.1 coins$22.2031.71 coins0.44x1d

'Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACPagent · superior$50.4772.1 coins$12.7318.18 coins0.25x1d

Trapper Aggressor | Guerrilla Warfareagent · distinguished$50.4772.1 coins$22.2031.71 coins0.44x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$50.47	90.91%	10
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$50.76	90.91%	10
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$51.76	90.90%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.2%covert 7.8%classified 2.0%distinguished 30.0%superior 60.0%best hit $1,415 (27.35x)