Bacteria
A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.45
26.36 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $16.78 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.98%
10.4K openings, odds method
Variance
28.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 58
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$19.0327.19 coins$2,0402,915 coins107.2x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$18.4526.35 coins$1,9882,840 coins107.8x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emeraldcoverq$18.4526.36 coins$1,7312,473 coins93.82x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$18.4526.36 coins$1,7312,473 coins93.82x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$19.0327.19 coins$1,6202,314 coins85.10x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$18.4526.36 coins$1,5672,239 coins84.94x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$18.4526.36 coins$1,4452,064 coins78.30x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$18.4526.36 coins$1,4452,064 coins78.30x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$18.4526.35 coins$1,4452,064 coins78.33x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$19.0327.19 coins$1,4452,064 coins75.91x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$18.4526.36 coins$0.070.1 coins0.00x
Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$18.4526.36 coins$0.250.36 coins0.01x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$18.4526.36 coins$0.070.1 coins0.00x
Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$18.4526.36 coins$0.250.36 coins0.01x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · consumercoverq$18.4526.36 coins$0.070.1 coins0.00x
Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$18.4526.36 coins$0.250.36 coins0.01x
Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$18.4526.36 coins$0.250.36 coins0.01x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$18.4526.36 coins$0.070.1 coins0.00x
Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$18.4526.36 coins$0.250.36 coins0.01x
Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrialKenen$18.4526.36 coins$0.250.36 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $18.45 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.45 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.03 | 90.90% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%covert 0.2%classified 0.7%restricted 3.2%extraordinary 0.9%industrial 47.5%consumer 47.5%best hit $2,040 (107.2x)