Baller Knifes

A case on CSGORoll (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$382.54

546 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $347.76 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

116.18%

15 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

11 openings · below min

30 days

15 openings · below min

since tracking started

15 openings · below min

6.5%85.2%164.0%

Small sample. 15 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	11	62.21%±55.2	—	odds
30d	15	116.18%±47.3	—	odds
All	15	116.18%±47.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	10.0%	$1,180 1,685 coins	33.9%	3	1.5	2.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$937 1,339 coins	13.5%	0	0.8	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$799 1,142 coins	2.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	10.0%	$541 773 coins	15.6%	2	1.5	1.33×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$536 766 coins	7.7%	1	0.8	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	10.0%	$268 383 coins	7.7%	3	1.5	2.00×
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	11.0%	$148 211 coins	4.7%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	12.0%	$145 207 coins	5.0%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	11.0%	$141 201 coins	4.5%	2	1.6	1.21×
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	12.5%	$79.80 114 coins	2.9%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	12.5%	$65.09 92.98 coins	2.3%	1	1.9	0.53×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.