Balls of Steel
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$73.90
106 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $67.18 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.28%
443 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
56.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 443 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryNxxh$74.49106 coins$564806 coins7.57x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryUnfairScroll27$73.90106 coins$110157 coins1.49x
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$73.91106 coins$160229 coins2.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC | $73.90 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $73.91 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $73.79 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $74.51 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $74.49 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.1%covert 25.2%extraordinary 18.3%industrial 22.4%restricted 20.0%mil spec 14.0%best hit $1,907 (25.61x)