Ballsy

A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.13

4.47 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $2.84 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.23%

124K openings, odds method

Variance

134.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 455

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

100.33%±18.1515.7K openings

7 days

87.16%±7.07104K openings

30 days

88.23%±6.48124K openings

since tracking started

88.23%±6.48124K openings

79.5%99.3%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	15.7K	100.33%±18.2	+1.0σ	odds
7d	104K	87.16%±7.07	−1.0σ	odds
30d	124K	88.23%±6.48	−0.8σ	odds
All	124K	88.23%±6.48	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 124K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 10,000	$1,226 1,752 coins	4.3%	8	12.4	0.64×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$844 1,205 coins	14.8%	74	62.0	1.19×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 5,000	$799 1,142 coins	5.6%	28	24.8	1.13×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$748 1,068 coins	6.6%	29	31.0	0.93×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,667	$745 1,064 coins	3.9%	17	18.6	0.91×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 3,333	$517 738 coins	5.4%	37	37.2	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$412 589 coins	10.1%	71	86.9	0.82×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$295 421 coins	8.3%	88	99.3	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 1,000	$225 322 coins	7.9%	112	124.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$197 281 coins	6.9%	105	124.1	0.85×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$190 272 coins	6.7%	144	124.1	1.16×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$174 249 coins	6.1%	113	124.1	0.91×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$142 203 coins	5.0%	135	124.1	1.09×
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$123 176 coins	4.3%	117	124.1	0.94×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$103 147 coins	3.6%	125	124.1	1.01×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	49.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	61,428	61419.6	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	49.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	61,449	61419.6	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$3.134.47 coins$1,2261,752 coins391.9x3h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$3.134.47 coins$1,2261,752 coins391.9x15h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$3.134.47 coins$1,2261,752 coins391.9x22h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3IceCu$3.134.47 coins$1,2261,752 coins391.9x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$3.134.47 coins$1,2261,752 coins391.9x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$3.134.47 coins$1,2261,752 coins391.9x2d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3BOSS csgoroll.com$3.134.47 coins$1,2261,752 coins391.9x2d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3Jepulis__$3.194.56 coins$1,2201,743 coins382.2x3d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3DYLAN$3.194.56 coins$1,2201,743 coins382.2x6d

StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$3.194.56 coins$8781,254 coins275.0x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$3.134.47 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerDogWater$3.134.47 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$3.134.47 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$3.134.47 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerDogWater$3.134.47 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$3.134.47 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$3.13	90.90%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.19	90.96%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 0.1%legendary 0.1%mil spec 0.1%classified 0.1%consumer 99.0%best hit $1,226 (391.9x)