Barren

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$35.93

51.33 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $32.67 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.86%

288 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

30 openings · below min

7 days

88.07%±9.25238 openings

30 days

90.86%±8.42288 openings

since tracking started

90.86%±8.42288 openings

51.5%78.0%104.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	30	78.23%±25.8	—	odds
7d	238	88.07%±9.25	−0.6σ	odds
30d	288	90.86%±8.42	−0.0σ	odds
All	288	90.86%±8.42	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 288 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$192 274 coins	0.6%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$179 256 coins	5.5%	1	2.9	0.35×
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$90.30 129 coins	8.3%	8	8.6	0.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$81.20 116 coins	12.4%	15	14.4	1.04×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$71.40 102 coins	1.1%	1	1.4	0.69×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$65.46 93.51 coins	10.0%	13	14.4	0.90×
USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$41.98 59.97 coins	9.0%	34	20.2	1.69×
MP7 \| Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 11	$32.28 46.12 coins	8.9%	25	25.9	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$29.50 42.15 coins	7.2%	24	23.0	1.04×
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	23.4%	$28.29 40.42 coins	20.3%	60	67.4	0.89×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$23.14 33.06 coins	5.7%	21	23.0	0.91×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$18.43 26.33 coins	5.6%	34	28.8	1.18×
MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$14.52 20.74 coins	2.2%	8	14.4	0.56×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	15.0%	$6.92 9.89 coins	3.2%	43	43.2	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$35.9351.33 coins$28.2940.42 coins0.79x3h

USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$35.9351.33 coins$41.9859.97 coins1.17x3h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$35.9351.33 coins$18.4326.33 coins0.51x3h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedCousin of po$35.9351.33 coins$18.4326.33 coins0.51x3h

USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$35.9351.33 coins$41.9859.97 coins1.17x3h

Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$35.9351.33 coins$28.2940.42 coins0.79x3h

MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumerVeckans$35.9351.33 coins$29.5042.15 coins0.82x5h

Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$35.9351.33 coins$28.2940.42 coins0.79x5h

MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrialQueen B ❤$35.9351.33 coins$32.2846.12 coins0.90x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$35.93	90.92%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$36.06	90.91%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$36.06	90.92%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 7.1%classified 62.4%restricted 3.0%covert 5.0%extraordinary 0.5%industrial 14.0%consumer 8.0%best hit —