Bash
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.08
24.4 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $15.53 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.27%
1,647 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,647 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$17.0824.4 coins$6.809.71 coins0.40x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.08 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.16 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.85 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 22.2%extraordinary 3.4%covert 8.4%industrial 16.0%classified 13.0%consumer 14.5%mil spec 22.5%best hit —