BCX

A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.11

21.59 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $13.74 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.95%

27.9K openings, odds method

Variance

156.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 133

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.91%±41.143,546 openings

7 days

82.46%±15.8223.6K openings

30 days

82.95%±14.5427.9K openings

since tracking started

82.95%±14.5427.9K openings

36.0%77.8%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,546	77.91%±41.1	−0.6σ	odds
7d	23.6K	82.46%±15.8	−1.0σ	odds
30d	27.9K	82.95%±14.5	−1.1σ	odds
All	27.9K	82.95%±14.5	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x IBP (Holo) (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 40,000	$26.3K 37,500 coins	4.8%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 40,000	$14.4K 20,545 coins	2.6%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 20,000	$8,505 12,150 coins	3.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,500	$2,615 3,735 coins	7.6%	14	11.2	1.25×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$1,285 1,835 coins	18.7%	62	55.9	1.11×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$676 966 coins	2.5%	18	14.0	1.29×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 222	$563 804 coins	18.4%	122	125.8	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$430 614 coins	23.5%	188	209.6	0.90×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 133	$323 462 coins	17.7%	211	209.6	1.01×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 133	$18.97 27.1 coins	1.0%	194	209.6	0.93×
Sticker \| This Is Fine (H)sticker · high	97.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.1%	27,140	27110.5	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$15.3621.94 coins$2,6393,770 coins171.8x3d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$15.3621.94 coins$2,6393,770 coins171.8x4d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyMR.MO$15.3621.94 coins$2,6393,770 coins171.8x4d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubywhitenemo ✈$15.3621.94 coins$2,6393,770 coins171.8x4d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$15.3621.94 coins$2,6393,770 coins171.8x4d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubypond swimmer$15.3621.94 coins$2,6393,770 coins171.8x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$15.3621.94 coins$2,6393,770 coins171.8x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$15.3621.94 coins$2,6393,770 coins171.8x6d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$15.3621.94 coins$2,6393,770 coins171.8x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | This Is Fine (H)sticker · high$15.1121.59 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x6m

Sticker | This Is Fine (H)sticker · highJake$15.1121.59 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x6m

Sticker | This Is Fine (H)sticker · high$15.1121.59 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x6m

Sticker | This Is Fine (H)sticker · high$15.1121.59 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$15.11	90.90%	11
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$15.13	90.91%	11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$15.11	90.93%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.36	90.89%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%contraband 0.0%covert 0.8%extraordinary 0.3%rare 0.4%restricted 0.8%mil spec 0.8%high 97.0%best hit $2,639 (171.8x)