Beast
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.87
76.96 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $48.97 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
114.98%
43 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 43 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Autograph Capsule | Luminosity Gaming | Cologne 2015other · base$53.8776.96 coins$15.0221.46 coins0.28x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$53.8776.96 coins$6.659.5 coins0.12x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$53.8776.96 coins$133190 coins2.47x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$53.8776.96 coins$179255 coins3.31x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertHeego$53.8776.96 coins$179255 coins3.31x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$53.8776.96 coins$23.6333.75 coins0.44x
Autograph Capsule | Luminosity Gaming | Cologne 2015other · base$53.8776.96 coins$15.0221.46 coins0.28x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $53.87 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $54.10 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $54.85 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.98 | 90.91% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 11.3%remarkable 16.3%covert 9.2%extraordinary 3.0%classified 5.0%restricted 18.2%rare 21.0%base 16.0%best hit —