Beehive

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$120.39

172 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $109.45 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.95%

91 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

91 openings · below min

30 days

91 openings · below min

since tracking started

91 openings · below min

12.0%58.7%105.5%

Small sample. 91 openings and 25.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	56.28%±43.7	—	odds
7d	91	88.95%±15.8	—	odds
30d	91	88.95%±15.8	—	odds
All	91	88.95%±15.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$1,066 1,523 coins	2.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$624 891 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$488 697 coins	3.6%	1	0.7	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$465 664 coins	2.1%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$273 390 coins	7.0%	6	2.5	2.35×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 29	$273 390 coins	8.7%	3	3.2	0.94×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 286	$253 361 coins	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 77	$230 328 coins	2.7%	1	1.2	0.85×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 59	$202 289 coins	3.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	12.0%	$164 234 coins	18.0%	7	10.9	0.64×
★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 22	$133 190 coins	5.5%	4	4.1	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$111 159 coins	6.1%	3	5.5	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	15.4%	$104 148 coins	14.6%	15	14.0	1.07×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	14.0%	$74.20 106 coins	9.5%	17	12.7	1.33×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$62.27 88.95 coins	4.4%	8	7.1	1.13×
UMP-45 \| Caramel (Factory New)weapon · consumer	14.0%	$61.96 88.52 coins	7.9%	15	12.7	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	15.0%	$21.55 30.78 coins	3.0%	11	13.7	0.81×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$120172 coins$21.5530.78 coins0.18x19h

M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$120172 coins$62.2788.95 coins0.52x19h

UMP-45 | Caramel (Factory New)weapon · consumer$120172 coins$61.9688.52 coins0.51x19h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$120172 coins$74.20106 coins0.62x19h

M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedLars$120172 coins$62.2788.95 coins0.52x19h

M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$120172 coins$21.5530.78 coins0.18x20h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$120172 coins$74.20106 coins0.62x20h

M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$120172 coins$62.2788.95 coins0.52x20h

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$120172 coins$104148 coins0.86x20h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$120	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$121	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$120	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 42.0%restricted 16.6%extraordinary 0.4%mil spec 12.0%consumer 14.0%classified 15.0%best hit —