Benchmark

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$296.88

424 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $269.89 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.89%

30 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

18 openings · below min

30 days

30 openings · below min

since tracking started

30 openings · below min

44.5%99.5%154.5%

Small sample. 30 openings and 7.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	18	99.48%±54.2	—	odds
30d	30	99.89%±42.0	—	odds
All	30	99.89%±42.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$7,294 10,420 coins	2.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$1,606 2,294 coins	3.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 400	$1,514 2,163 coins	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 125	$1,366 1,952 coins	4.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 77	$999 1,427 coins	4.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 36	$941 1,344 coins	9.8%	2	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$888 1,269 coins	5.6%	0	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 29	$570 814 coins	7.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 286	$454 649 coins	0.6%	1	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	15.0%	$410 586 coins	22.8%	5	4.5	1.11×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	12.0%	$282 403 coins	12.5%	2	3.6	0.56×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 22	$232 332 coins	3.9%	3	1.3	2.22×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 17	$181 258 coins	4.0%	5	1.8	2.78×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 13	$157 224 coins	4.5%	1	2.3	0.43×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	14.0%	$141 201 coins	7.3%	1	4.2	0.24×
★ Gut Knifeknife · covert	14.0%	$54.89 78.42 coins	2.8%	5	4.2	1.19×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	15.4%	$49.33 70.47 coins	2.8%	4	4.6	0.87×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.