Big Bang

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.39

10.55 coins

Advertised RTP

90.95%

EV $6.72 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.49%

8,999 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.50%±4.83805 openings

7 days

90.89%±1.597,459 openings

30 days

90.49%±1.448,999 openings

since tracking started

90.49%±1.448,999 openings

87.0%92.5%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	805	92.50%±4.83	+0.6σ	odds
7d	7,459	90.89%±1.59	−0.1σ	odds
30d	8,999	90.49%±1.44	−0.6σ	odds
All	8,999	90.49%±1.44	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,013 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$75.60 108 coins	1.0%	9	8.1	1.11×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$42.21 60.3 coins	0.2%	3	2.3	1.33×
Sticker \| SK Gaming (Holo) \| Cologne 2016sticker · remarkable	1 in 2,000	$39.01 55.73 coins	0.3%	4	4.5	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 2,222	$38.78 55.4 coins	0.3%	4	4.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$15.67 22.39 coins	12.1%	481	468.7	1.03×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$15.62 22.31 coins	2.3%	75	90.1	0.83×
Sticker \| Team EnVyUs (Holo) \| Cologne 2016sticker · remarkable	1 in 33	$15.06 21.52 coins	6.7%	283	270.4	1.05×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$14.16 20.23 coins	0.2%	5	8.1	0.62×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	10.0%	$12.21 17.45 coins	18.2%	914	901.3	1.01×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	10.0%	$11.94 17.05 coins	17.8%	902	901.3	1.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	13.0%	$7.14 10.2 coins	13.8%	1,106	1171.7	0.94×
Sticker \| Eternal Fire (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · exotic	11.0%	$4.97 7.1 coins	8.1%	950	991.4	0.96×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	15.0%	$4.22 6.03 coins	9.4%	1,312	1352.0	0.97×
Sticker \| OG (Holo) \| Austin 2025sticker · uncommon	15.0%	$2.32 3.32 coins	5.2%	1,454	1352.0	1.08×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	16.5%	$1.78 2.54 coins	4.4%	1,511	1487.1	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$7.3910.55 coins$1.782.54 coins0.24x1m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedwSe$7.3910.55 coins$15.6722.39 coins2.12x1m

MP7 | Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$7.3910.55 coins$4.226.03 coins0.57x2m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonRusty Cake$7.3910.55 coins$1.782.54 coins0.24x2m

FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$7.3910.55 coins$15.6222.31 coins2.11x2m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$7.3910.55 coins$12.2117.45 coins1.65x2m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$7.3910.55 coins$12.2117.45 coins1.65x6m

MP7 | Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$7.3910.55 coins$4.226.03 coins0.57x28m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$7.3910.55 coins$11.9417.05 coins1.62x28m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$7.3910.55 coins$12.2117.45 coins1.65x45m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$7.39	90.95%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$7.47	90.89%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 11.2%remarkable 3.0%rare 0.0%restricted 5.2%uncommon 69.5%exotic 11.0%best hit —