Blessed
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.70
26.71 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $17.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.66%
1,603 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,603 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covertguRRa$19.0127.16 coins$8131,162 coins42.78x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covertm1chi$19.0827.25 coins$8131,162 coins42.64x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$18.7726.82 coins$7831,119 coins41.72x
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violetRusty Cake$18.7026.71 coins$5.828.31 coins0.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $18.70 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $18.77 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.77 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $19.03 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $19.01 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $19.08 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.94 | 90.91% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%legendary 0.1%classified 11.8%restricted 30.0%mil spec 43.0%violet 15.0%best hit $848 (45.19x)