Bloodlust

A case on CSGORoll (10%, hot, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$38.94

55.63 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $35.40 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.69%

9,778 openings, odds method

Variance

7.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 26

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

106.57%±18.45868 openings

7 days

94.46%±5.968,283 openings

30 days

94.69%±5.489,778 openings

since tracking started

94.69%±5.489,778 openings

87.5%106.5%125.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	868	106.57%±18.5	+1.7σ	odds
7d	8,283	94.46%±5.96	+1.2σ	odds
30d	9,778	94.69%±5.48	+1.3σ	odds
All	9,778	94.69%±5.48	+1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,778 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000,000	$9,342 13,345 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 333,333	$6,888 9,840 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 500,000	$6,790 9,700 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 20,000	$2,076 2,965 coins	0.3%	0	0.5	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,667	$760 1,086 coins	1.3%	8	5.9	1.36×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 667	$624 891 coins	2.6%	10	14.7	0.68×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$611 873 coins	5.2%	27	29.3	0.92×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 83	$485 693 coins	16.4%	126	117.3	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$421 602 coins	4.8%	44	39.1	1.12×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$394 563 coins	5.6%	68	48.9	1.39×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 77	$382 545 coins	14.0%	104	127.1	0.82×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 71	$350 500 coins	13.8%	150	136.9	1.10×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 67	$291 416 coins	12.3%	160	146.7	1.09×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 59	$251 359 coins	12.1%	187	166.2	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$47.66 68.09 coins	3.3%	243	242.9	1.00×
Sticker \| Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic	30.0%	$4.07 5.81 coins	3.4%	2,906	2933.4	0.99×
Sticker \| Ruby Wave (Lenticular)sticker · #eb4b4b	29.0%	$3.33 4.76 coins	2.7%	2,867	2835.6	1.01×
Sticker \| Ruby Stream (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary	30.0%	$2.27 3.24 coins	1.9%	2,878	2933.4	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$39.5656.52 coins$8391,198 coins21.20x3d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyDer beste Uwe$39.5656.52 coins$8391,198 coins21.20x3d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$39.5656.52 coins$8391,198 coins21.20x5d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$39.5656.52 coins$8391,198 coins21.20x6d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyDer beste Uwe$39.5656.52 coins$8391,198 coins21.20x7d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$38.9455.63 coins$7601,086 coins19.52x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$38.9455.63 coins$7601,086 coins19.52x2d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$39.5656.52 coins$627896 coins15.85x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic$38.9455.63 coins$4.075.81 coins0.10x2m

Sticker | Ruby Stream (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary$38.9455.63 coins$2.273.24 coins0.06x2m

Sticker | Ruby Wave (Lenticular)sticker · #eb4b4b$38.9455.63 coins$3.334.76 coins0.09x2m

Sticker | Ruby Stream (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinaryJake$38.9455.63 coins$2.273.24 coins0.06x2m

Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic$38.9455.63 coins$4.075.81 coins0.10x2m

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$38.9455.63 coins$47.6668.09 coins1.22x2m

Sticker | Ruby Wave (Lenticular)sticker · #eb4b4b$38.9455.63 coins$3.334.76 coins0.09x2m

Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic$38.9455.63 coins$4.075.81 coins0.10x2m

Sticker | Ruby Wave (Lenticular)sticker · #eb4b4b$38.9455.63 coins$3.334.76 coins0.09x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$38.94	90.91%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$39.08	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$39.56	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.6%legendary 0.0%restricted 0.4%exotic 30.0%#eb4b4b 29.0%extraordinary 30.0%best hit $839 (21.20x)