Blossom

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$240.15

343 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $218.32 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.29%

570 openings, odds method

Variance

9.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

48 openings · below min

7 days

91.67%±26.39546 openings

30 days

90.29%±25.83570 openings

since tracking started

90.29%±25.83570 openings

-0.5%62.3%125.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	48	35.36%±89.0	—	odds
7d	546	91.67%±26.4	+0.1σ	odds
30d	570	90.29%±25.8	−0.0σ	odds
All	570	90.29%±25.8	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 570 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 3,333	$13.5K 19,275 coins	1.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$11.4K 16,295 coins	5.2%	1	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$10.7K 15,300 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 500	$7,336 10,480 coins	6.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$6,657 9,510 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$6,335 9,050 coins	1.5%	1	0.3	—
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 250	$4,305 6,150 coins	7.9%	1	2.3	0.44×
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 333	$4,088 5,840 coins	5.6%	5	1.7	2.92×
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$2,454 3,505 coins	5.6%	1	2.9	0.35×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 133	$1,325 1,893 coins	4.6%	1	4.3	0.23×
Sticker \| DD (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 25	$1,174 1,677 coins	21.5%	20	22.8	0.88×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$1,047 1,495 coins	9.6%	17	11.4	1.49×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$878 1,254 coins	12.1%	18	17.1	1.05×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$606 865 coins	2.8%	3	5.7	0.53×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 17	$256 366 coins	7.0%	37	34.2	1.08×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 15	$224 320 coins	6.8%	41	37.8	1.08×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	37.5%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	208	213.8	0.97×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	37.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	216	213.8	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl🟢Kick: JULSY$243347 coins$11.4K16,295 coins46.99x6d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$240343 coins$6,3359,050 coins26.38x2d

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$243347 coins$4,3056,150 coins17.73x5d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableachilles$240343 coins$4,0885,840 coins17.02x2d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$243347 coins$4,0885,840 coins16.84x3d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$243347 coins$4,0885,840 coins16.84x6d

AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$243347 coins$2,4613,515 coins10.14x4d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$243347 coins$1,3681,954 coins5.63x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerachilles$240343 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x12h

★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$240343 coins$256366 coins1.07x12h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$240343 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x12h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerachilles$240343 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x12h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$240343 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x20h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$240343 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x20h

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireWielando$240343 coins$224320 coins0.93x20h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$240343 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x20h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$240	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$243	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.6%covert 20.1%extraordinary 4.0%remarkable 0.3%consumer 75.0%best hit $11.4K (46.99x)