Blur

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$24.08

34.4 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $21.89 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.04%

1,430 openings, odds method

Variance

3.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

141.80%±36.04115 openings

7 days

102.60%±10.741,279 openings

30 days

100.04%±10.151,430 openings

since tracking started

100.04%±10.151,430 openings

89.0%133.8%178.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	115	141.80%±36.0	+2.8σ	odds
7d	1,279	102.60%±10.7	+2.1σ	odds
30d	1,430	100.04%±10.1	+1.8σ	odds
All	1,430	100.04%±10.1	+1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,430 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$888 1,269 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$827 1,182 coins	3.8%	3	1.4	2.10×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 2,000	$806 1,152 coins	1.8%	0	0.7	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$795 1,136 coins	1.8%	3	0.7	—
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$87.50 125 coins	6.0%	21	21.4	0.98×
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	15.0%	$83.30 119 coins	57.1%	231	214.5	1.08×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$39.07 55.82 coins	5.4%	43	42.9	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.3%	$34.25 48.93 coins	16.1%	133	147.1	0.90×
P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$5.20 7.43 coins	3.6%	219	214.5	1.02×
Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$4.60 6.57 coins	3.2%	218	214.5	1.02×
G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	15.0%	$1.32 1.89 coins	0.9%	213	214.5	0.99×
Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	346	357.5	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$23.5333.61 coins$8171,167 coins34.72x3d

★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$24.0834.4 coins$7951,136 coins33.02x6h

★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$24.0834.4 coins$7951,136 coins33.02x8h

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$23.5133.58 coins$7061,008 coins30.02x4d

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryxSazukiii$23.5133.58 coins$7061,008 coins30.02x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$24.0834.4 coins$4.606.57 coins0.19x6h

G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.0834.4 coins$1.321.89 coins0.05x6h

G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerfast csgoroll.com$24.0834.4 coins$1.321.89 coins0.05x6h

G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.0834.4 coins$1.321.89 coins0.05x6h

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$24.0834.4 coins$83.30119 coins3.46x6h

★ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$24.0834.4 coins$7951,136 coins33.02x6h

G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.0834.4 coins$1.321.89 coins0.05x7h

Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$24.0834.4 coins$4.606.57 coins0.19x7h

Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.0834.4 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x7h

G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$24.0834.4 coins$1.321.89 coins0.05x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$24.08	90.92%	12
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$24.14	90.92%	12
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$23.63	90.90%	12
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC	$23.53	90.90%	12
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$23.51	90.90%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$23.51	90.92%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.1%extraordinary 0.1%classified 11.8%mil spec 33.0%consumer 40.0%best hit $817 (34.72x)