Boiling point
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.11
20.16 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $12.83 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.78%
2,534 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,534 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$14.1120.16 coins$2.743.92 coins0.19x
StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$14.1120.16 coins$2.743.92 coins0.19x
Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Factory New)weapon · restrictedDingDong$14.1120.16 coins$15.4322.05 coins1.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $14.11 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $13.82 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $13.80 | 90.93% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.06 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $14.06 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $14.10 | 90.93% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.26 | 90.93% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 9.0%rare 5.6%covert 1.6%base 0.5%classified 16.5%high 2.5%industrial 4.3%restricted 15.6%consumer 8.7%mil spec 18.2%exotic 8.4%uncommon 9.0%best hit —