Bonfire
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$107.09
153 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $97.35 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.69%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 36 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)weapon · covert · Phase 4$107153 coins$85.40122 coins0.80x
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)weapon · covert · Phase 4$107153 coins$85.40122 coins0.80x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare🟢Kick: Activ3C0ma$107153 coins$28.2040.29 coins0.26x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert`FluffyFlow⭕⃤$107153 coins$384549 coins3.59x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $107 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $107 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $109 | 90.91% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 24.0%restricted 22.5%epic 0.7%classified 20.5%extraordinary 3.0%rare 10.0%uncommon 19.4%best hit —