Boobytrap
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.86
4.09 coins
Advertised RTP
90.85%
EV $2.60 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.07%
17.8K openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $2.86 | 90.85% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $2.86 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $2.86 | 90.88% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.83 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $2.78 | 90.81% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.77 | 90.97% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%classified 12.7%restricted 12.0%mil spec 37.1%industrial 18.1%consumer 20.0%best hit —