Boomstick

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$72.08

103 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $65.52 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.02%

30 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

24 openings · below min

30 days

30 openings · below min

since tracking started

30 openings · below min

37.5%80.0%122.5%

Small sample. 30 openings and 9.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	24	80.03%±41.7	—	odds
30d	30	82.02%±37.1	—	odds
All	30	82.02%±37.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$1,018 1,454 coins	7.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$206 294 coins	6.3%	1	0.6	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$123 176 coins	5.6%	2	0.9	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$102 145 coins	4.6%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 17	$102 145 coins	9.3%	1	1.8	0.56×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$93.10 133 coins	4.3%	0	0.9	—
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	15.0%	$88.20 126 coins	20.2%	3	4.5	0.67×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$79.10 113 coins	2.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$66.61 95.15 coins	3.0%	0	0.9	—
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$49.60 70.86 coins	2.3%	2	0.9	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$47.74 68.2 coins	2.9%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$46.98 67.11 coins	2.2%	3	0.9	—
Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue	17.5%	$44.43 63.47 coins	11.9%	6	5.3	1.14×
P250 \| Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$38.54 55.06 coins	4.1%	2	2.1	0.95×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$36.88 52.69 coins	3.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	15.0%	$31.18 44.55 coins	7.1%	4	4.5	0.89×
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$24.49 34.98 coins	2.6%	4	2.1	1.90×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$72.08103 coins$31.1844.55 coins0.43x2d

P250 | Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted$72.08103 coins$38.5455.06 coins0.53x2d

★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert$72.08103 coins$49.6070.86 coins0.69x2d

P250 | Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted$72.08103 coins$38.5455.06 coins0.53x2d

Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blueElze$72.08103 coins$44.4363.47 coins0.62x2d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$72.08103 coins$47.7468.2 coins0.66x2d

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$72.08103 coins$88.20126 coins1.22x2d

Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue$72.08103 coins$44.4363.47 coins0.62x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$72.08	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$73.22	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$72.79	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 40.5%restricted 10.0%extraordinary 4.0%blue 17.5%classified 28.0%best hit —