Booty
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.20
7.43 coins
Advertised RTP
90.88%
EV $4.73 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.87%
9,145 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,155 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Banan$5.207.43 coins$274392 coins52.76x
Latest dropsnewest first
G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumerReettaonläski$5.207.43 coins$7.6410.92 coins1.47x
Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerdropix$5.207.43 coins$4.446.35 coins0.85x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $5.20 | 90.88% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $5.20 | 90.87% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $5.19 | 90.95% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.19 | 90.94% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.19 | 90.87% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.18 | 90.87% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 15.1%classified 7.0%restricted 17.1%rare 0.5%pink 6.0%consumer 19.0%industrial 35.0%best hit $274 (52.76x)