Borealis
A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$175.99
251 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $159.99 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.96%
579 openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 579 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$176251 coins$2,7163,880 coins15.43x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$176251 coins$2,0902,985 coins11.87x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$176251 coins$1,5672,239 coins8.91x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$176251 coins$1,5672,239 coins8.91x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$179255 coins$1,4712,102 coins8.23x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3m1chi$176251 coins$1,4242,034 coins8.09x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$179255 coins$1,1671,667 coins6.53x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$179255 coins$1,1671,667 coins6.53x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$176251 coins$1,1441,634 coins6.50x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3m1chi$176251 coins$1,1441,634 coins6.50x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedachilles$176251 coins$0.570.81 coins0.00x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$176251 coins$0.570.81 coins0.00x
AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedBaCraMo- csgoroll.com$176251 coins$0.921.31 coins0.01x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1$176251 coins$641916 coins3.64x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $176 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $176 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $176 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.7%extraordinary 7.4%legendary 10.9%restricted 50.0%#4b69ff 25.0%best hit $2,716 (15.43x)