Botanical

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$155.60

222 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $141.45 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.07%

361 openings, odds method

Variance

4.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

80.20%±22.22355 openings

30 days

80.07%±22.03361 openings

since tracking started

80.07%±22.03361 openings

-0.5%164.0%328.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	30.84%±296.8	—	odds
7d	355	80.20%±22.2	−0.9σ	odds
30d	361	80.07%±22.0	−1.0σ	odds
All	361	80.07%±22.0	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 361 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$5,023 7,175 coins	3.6%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 286	$3,213 4,590 coins	8.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$2,069 2,955 coins	7.3%	1	1.8	0.55×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 59	$1,100 1,572 coins	13.2%	7	6.1	1.14×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$1,035 1,478 coins	1.8%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$646 923 coins	5.9%	6	4.7	1.28×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$540 772 coins	3.1%	4	2.9	1.39×
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 36	$421 601 coins	8.3%	10	10.1	0.99×
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$307 438 coins	16.9%	28	28.2	0.99×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 29	$274 391 coins	6.8%	9	12.6	0.71×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 22	$89.60 128 coins	2.9%	19	16.2	1.17×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted	14.0%	$78.40 112 coins	7.8%	42	50.5	0.83×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted	15.4%	$75.60 108 coins	8.2%	61	55.6	1.10×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$47.80 68.28 coins	2.0%	19	21.7	0.88×
Souvenir P250 \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer	12.0%	$31.33 44.76 coins	2.7%	50	43.3	1.15×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	14.0%	$9.40 13.43 coins	0.9%	44	50.5	0.87×
Souvenir M249 \| Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	15.0%	$6.38 9.11 coins	0.7%	60	54.1	1.11×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$156222 coins$2,0692,955 coins13.29x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$161229 coins$1,1311,616 coins7.04x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$156222 coins$1,1001,572 coins7.07x23h

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarym1chi$156222 coins$1,1001,572 coins7.07x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$156222 coins$1,1001,572 coins7.07x2d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$156222 coins$1,0351,478 coins6.65x23h

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$161229 coins$655935 coins4.08x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrialachilles$156222 coins$6.389.11 coins0.04x12h

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$156222 coins$89.60128 coins0.58x12h

Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$156222 coins$47.8068.28 coins0.31x23h

M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted$156222 coins$75.60108 coins0.49x23h

USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted$156222 coins$78.40112 coins0.50x23h

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$156222 coins$646923 coins4.15x23h

M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restrictedm1chi$156222 coins$75.60108 coins0.49x23h

M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted$156222 coins$75.60108 coins0.49x23h

Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$156222 coins$6.389.11 coins0.04x23h

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$156222 coins$1,0351,478 coins6.65x23h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$156	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$158	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$161	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.8%classified 0.9%extraordinary 6.2%restricted 43.2%consumer 12.0%industrial 29.0%best hit $2,069 (13.29x)