Breathe

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$260.09

372 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $236.44 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

143.65%

200 openings, odds method

Variance

14.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

143.65%±53.31200 openings

30 days

143.65%±53.31200 openings

since tracking started

143.65%±53.31200 openings

-0.5%223.3%447.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	137.08%±309.3	—	odds
7d	200	143.65%±53.3	+1.9σ	odds
30d	200	143.65%±53.3	+1.9σ	odds
All	200	143.65%±53.3	+1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 200 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100,000	$38K 54,245 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base	1 in 2,000	$25K 35,730 coins	5.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 2,000	$24.5K 35,000 coins	5.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 667	$7,297 10,425 coins	4.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$7,028 10,040 coins	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$6,657 9,510 coins	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$6,269 8,955 coins	1.3%	2	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 286	$5,156 7,365 coins	7.6%	1	0.7	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$3,923 5,605 coins	1.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 1,429	$3,311 4,730 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$1,988 2,840 coins	12.6%	1	3.0	0.33×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,393 1,990 coins	5.9%	3	2.0	1.50×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 170	$1,295 1,850 coins	3.2%	2	1.2	1.70×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$1,142 1,631 coins	8.7%	4	3.6	1.11×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 154	$1,050 1,500 coins	2.9%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 182	$1,037 1,482 coins	2.4%	2	1.1	1.82×
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby	1 in 400	$986 1,408 coins	1.0%	0	0.5	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 80	$788 1,125 coins	4.2%	1	2.5	0.40×
Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 17	$666 951 coins	16.9%	11	12.0	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 74	$659 942 coins	3.8%	3	2.7	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 4	1 in 87	$651 930 coins	3.2%	3	2.3	1.30×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 125	$475 678 coins	1.6%	3	1.6	1.88×
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 45	$436 623 coins	4.1%	5	4.4	1.14×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	40.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	85	80.0	1.06×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	72	80.0	0.90×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base$260372 coins$25K35,730 coins96.16x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$263376 coins$6,4659,235 coins24.54x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$260372 coins$6,2698,955 coins24.10x2d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$260372 coins$5,1567,365 coins19.82x2d

MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$260372 coins$1,9882,840 coins7.64x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$263376 coins$1,3931,990 coins5.29x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covertChris Handsome$263376 coins$1,3931,990 coins5.29x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$263376 coins$1,3931,990 coins5.29x6d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$260372 coins$1,2951,850 coins4.98x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$260372 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

Sticker | Natus Vincere | Katowice 2014sticker · high$260372 coins$666951 coins2.56x1h

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Kickerrrrrrrr$260372 coins$1,0371,482 coins3.99x1h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$260372 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$260372 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertKickerrrrrrrr$260372 coins$436623 coins1.68x1h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$260372 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2d

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$260372 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$260372 coins$1,0501,500 coins4.04x2d

MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$260372 coins$1,9882,840 coins7.64x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$260	90.91%	25
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$263	90.91%	25
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$263	90.91%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.0%base 0.1%legendary 2.0%contraband 0.5%covert 7.1%extraordinary 0.7%epic 0.1%classified 1.5%restricted 1.8%gold 0.3%high 6.0%consumer 80.0%best hit $25K (96.16x)