Brian v2
A case on CSGORoll (partners, 50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,451.56
2,074 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $1,319.60 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.29%
64 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 64 openings and 6.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,4522,074 coins$8,05711,510 coins5.55x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearlm1chi$1,4592,084 coins$8,05711,510 coins5.52x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,4522,074 coins$7,25210,360 coins5.00x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,4592,084 coins$7,25210,360 coins4.97x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$1,4592,084 coins$6,0038,575 coins4.11x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$1,4592,084 coins$2,6953,850 coins1.85x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,4522,074 coins$8,05711,510 coins5.55x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$1,4522,074 coins$7711,101 coins0.53x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1,452 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1,452 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,459 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 32.0%contraband 2.0%remarkable 1.0%high 5.0%extraordinary 5.0%epic 5.0%rare 25.0%Legendary 25.0%best hit $8,057 (5.55x)