Brutal
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.13
55.9 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $35.57 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.63%
828 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 828 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $1,096 1,566 coins | 6.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $623 890 coins | 5.3% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $532 760 coins | 22.4% | 12 | 12.4 | 0.97× |
| ★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $345 493 coins | 4.9% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $118 169 coins | 16.6% | 45 | 41.4 | 1.09× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $111 158 coins | 9.3% | 20 | 24.8 | 0.81× |
| Galil AR | Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $47.59 67.98 coins | 20.1% | 121 | 124.2 | 0.97× |
| USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 19.5% | $22.17 31.67 coins | 12.2% | 164 | 161.5 | 1.02× |
| MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 25.0% | $2.27 3.24 coins | 1.6% | 194 | 207.0 | 0.94× |
| Negev | Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $1.81 2.58 coins | 1.5% | 264 | 248.4 | 1.06× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert🌌Satoru Gojo🌌$39.9557.07 coins$1,1121,588 coins27.83x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertm1chi$39.1255.89 coins$1,0961,566 coins28.02x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$39.9857.11 coins$672960 coins16.81x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$39.1355.9 coins$623890 coins15.92x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertI lost my MBA tuition fee$39.9557.07 coins$540771 coins13.51x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert🌌Satoru Gojo🌌$39.9557.07 coins$540771 coins13.51x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $39.13 | 90.90% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $39.12 | 90.90% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.53 | 90.90% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $39.98 | 90.92% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $39.95 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.93 | 90.92% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.5%restricted 34.5%#8847ff 25.0%industrial 30.0%best hit $1,112 (27.83x)