Budget 10% Knife
A case on CSGORoll (hot, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.79
8.27 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $5.26 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.13%
21.4K openings, odds method
Variance
6.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $1,068 1,526 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 10 | $35.56 50.8 coins | 67.5% | 2,211 | 2140.7 | 1.03× |
| M249 | Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 18.0% | $2.42 3.45 coins | 8.3% | 3,845 | 3857.0 | 1.00× |
| MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 18.0% | $2.24 3.2 coins | 7.7% | 3,806 | 3857.0 | 0.99× |
| PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 18.0% | $2.06 2.94 coins | 7.0% | 3,871 | 3857.0 | 1.00× |
| MAC-10 | Surfwood (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 18.0% | $1.96 2.8 coins | 6.7% | 3,918 | 3857.0 | 1.02× |
| UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 18.0% | $0.24 0.34 coins | 0.8% | 3,777 | 3857.0 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertFellePellePro$6.148.77 coins$1,0861,551 coins176.9x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertförbjuden frukt$5.778.25 coins$35.5650.8 coins6.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.79 | 90.92% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $5.80 | 90.92% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $5.80 | 90.94% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.80 | 90.87% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.14 | 90.86% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $6.14 | 90.89% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $6.13 | 90.95% | 7 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.15 | 90.88% | 7 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $6.19 | 90.90% | 7 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.24 | 90.93% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $1,086 (176.9x)