Budget Loadout
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.39
10.55 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $6.71 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.61%
5,299 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,311 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialRusty Cake$7.3910.55 coins$9.1213.03 coins1.24x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $7.39 | 90.90% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $7.39 | 90.91% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $7.39 | 90.95% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $7.40 | 90.90% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.37 | 90.89% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.31 | 90.90% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $7.31 | 90.91% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $7.31 | 90.91% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $7.31 | 90.88% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $7.34 | 90.90% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.33 | 90.95% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $7.33 | 90.93% | 39 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.41 | 90.87% | 39 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 32.7%restricted 53.2%mil spec 6.0%pink 3.0%industrial 3.0%Mythical 2.0%best hit —