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Bulb

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$126.54
181 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $115.04 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.06%
1,295 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
85.77%±39.30183 openings
7 days
82.92%±16.341,069 openings
30 days
80.06%±14.871,295 openings
since tracking started
80.06%±14.871,295 openings
46.0%85.8%125.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h18385.77%±39.3−0.3σodds
7d1,06982.92%±16.3−1.0σodds
30d1,29580.06%±14.9−1.4σodds
All1,29580.06%±14.9−1.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,295 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 667$5,023 7,175 coins6.5%01.90.00×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 667$2,667 3,810 coins3.5%21.91.03×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 250$1,606 2,294 coins5.6%35.20.58×
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 400$1,551 2,216 coins3.4%23.20.62×
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 400$1,474 2,105 coins3.2%33.20.93×
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 333$1,436 2,052 coins3.7%63.91.54×
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$1,136 1,623 coins4.9%86.51.24×
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 200$1,090 1,557 coins4.7%76.51.08×
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 250$1,008 1,440 coins3.5%45.20.77×
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$935 1,336 coins4.1%126.51.85×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 100$922 1,317 coins8.0%613.00.46×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 200$906 1,295 coins3.9%36.50.46×
AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 200$878 1,254 coins3.8%66.50.93×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 333$636 909 coins1.7%33.90.77×
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 200$569 813 coins2.5%86.51.24×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 100$456 651 coins4.0%1213.00.93×
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 29$412 589 coins12.2%4144.00.93×
AK-47 | X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 50$398 568 coins6.9%2025.90.77×
★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 100$232 332 coins2.0%1613.01.24×
★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 29$230 329 coins6.8%4444.01.00×
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 100$223 318 coins1.9%1213.00.93×
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 50$178 254 coins3.1%3425.91.31×
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer40.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%518518.01.00×
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer40.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%525518.01.01×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$127182 coins$2,6953,850 coins21.20x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubydr cheryll erwin$127182 coins$2,6953,850 coins21.20x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Kickerrrrrrrr$127182 coins$1,6322,331 coins12.83x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$127182 coins$1,6322,331 coins12.83x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2hellsten05$127182 coins$1,6322,331 coins12.83x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$127181 coins$1,5512,216 coins12.26x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$127181 coins$1,5512,216 coins12.26x
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert$127182 coins$1,4752,107 coins11.60x
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert$127182 coins$1,4752,107 coins11.60x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryKickerrrrrrrr$127181 coins$1,4742,105 coins11.64x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127181 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127181 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$127181 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127181 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127181 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127181 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$127181 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127181 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$127181 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127181 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$12790.91%24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$12790.91%24
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 14.9%legendary 0.7%restricted 3.4%extraordinary 1.0%consumer 80.0%best hit $2,695 (21.20x)