Bullseye
A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.82
6.88 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $4.38 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.91%
92.9K openings, odds method
Variance
144.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 313
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 93.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendaryleffenator$4.826.88 coins$2,8954,135 coins601.0x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$4.846.92 coins$2,1703,100 coins448.0x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.82 | 90.89% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.84 | 90.90% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.7%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 0.1%consumer 99.0%best hit $2,895 (601.0x)