Buoyancy
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.76
19.66 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $12.51 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.89%
7,645 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,649 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialwSe$13.7619.66 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covertRusty Cake$13.7619.66 coins$102146 coins7.43x
PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covertdinmor$13.7619.66 coins$102146 coins7.43x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $13.76 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $13.78 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $13.81 | 90.89% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $13.96 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $13.94 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.94 | 90.93% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.96 | 90.93% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.1%classified 13.1%mil spec 3.0%consumer 5.0%restricted 35.8%industrial 33.0%best hit —