Burger

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.79

8.27 coins

Advertised RTP

90.95%

EV $5.26 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.75%

3,567 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.69%±18.69313 openings

7 days

94.79%±6.172,820 openings

30 days

95.75%±5.483,567 openings

since tracking started

95.75%±5.483,567 openings

77.5%96.8%116.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	313	96.69%±18.7	+0.6σ	odds
7d	2,820	94.79%±6.17	+1.2σ	odds
30d	3,567	95.75%±5.48	+1.7σ	odds
All	3,567	95.75%±5.48	+1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,567 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$91.00 130 coins	8.6%	26	17.8	1.46×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$49.06 70.09 coins	7.0%	31	26.8	1.16×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$45.38 64.83 coins	8.6%	37	35.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 45	$32.24 46.06 coins	13.5%	88	78.5	1.12×
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 67	$18.26 26.09 coins	5.2%	55	53.5	1.03×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 22	$11.38 16.26 coins	9.7%	144	160.5	0.90×
Charm \| Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4b	1 in 50	$6.88 9.83 coins	2.6%	84	71.3	1.18×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	14.0%	$5.31 7.58 coins	14.1%	477	499.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	17.0%	$4.26 6.09 coins	13.8%	560	606.4	0.92×
Charm \| Lil' Monstercharm · uncommon	1 in 14	$2.04 2.91 coins	2.7%	286	249.7	1.15×
Sticker \| Chicken of the Skysticker · high	20.5%	$1.57 2.24 coins	6.1%	749	733.0	1.02×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	19.0%	$1.56 2.23 coins	5.6%	677	677.7	1.00×
Charm \| Diner Dogcharm · #d32ce6	10.0%	$1.26 1.8 coins	2.4%	353	356.7	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rareUser#181$5.798.27 coins$18.2626.09 coins3.15x1m

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.798.27 coins$5.317.58 coins0.92x4m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedUser#181$5.798.27 coins$4.266.09 coins0.74x4m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.798.27 coins$4.266.09 coins0.74x4m

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$5.798.27 coins$1.562.23 coins0.27x4m

Sticker | Chicken of the Skysticker · highUser#181$5.798.27 coins$1.572.24 coins0.27x4m

Charm | Lil' Monstercharm · uncommon$5.798.27 coins$2.042.91 coins0.35x5m

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.798.27 coins$5.317.58 coins0.92x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$5.79	90.95%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$5.81	90.88%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$5.77	90.94%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 4.5%rare 1.5%uncommon 30.5%#eb4b4b 2.0%restricted 31.0%high 20.5%#d32ce6 10.0%best hit —