Burnout
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.56
5.09 coins
Advertised RTP
90.85%
EV $3.24 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.05%
50.9K openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specPsIcHo csgoroll.com$3.565.09 coins$2.163.09 coins0.61x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.56 | 90.85% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.18 | 90.98% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $3.18 | 91.00% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.20 | 90.99% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 84.2%classified 4.3%restricted 4.5%consumer 1.0%industrial 5.0%remarkable 1.0%best hit —