Cactus
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$72.34
103 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $65.76 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.03%
29 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
43.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 29 openings and 10.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedCall me Johnny$72.34103 coins$46.8266.88 coins0.65x
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classifiedsvanteaa$72.34103 coins$67.0495.77 coins0.93x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$72.34103 coins$26.8938.42 coins0.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $72.34 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.69 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $72.99 | 90.91% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.1%restricted 46.4%extraordinary 5.5%mil spec 6.0%classified 27.0%best hit —