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A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.89
32.7 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $20.81 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.03%
691 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 695 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialCousin of po$22.8932.7 coins$8.5912.27 coins0.38x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $22.89 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.90 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.83 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.85 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.3%exotic 0.1%classified 27.7%industrial 34.0%mil spec 18.0%best hit —