Cardboard

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$71.36

102 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $64.87 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

104.25%

227 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

106.16%±22.59197 openings

30 days

104.25%±21.07227 openings

since tracking started

104.25%±21.07227 openings

-0.5%77.3%155.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	75.38%±78.8	—	odds
7d	197	106.16%±22.6	+1.3σ	odds
30d	227	104.25%±21.1	+1.2σ	odds
All	227	104.25%±21.1	+1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 227 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 286	$1,086 1,552 coins	5.9%	2	0.8	—
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$972 1,388 coins	1.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$846 1,209 coins	3.3%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 222	$649 927 coins	4.5%	1	1.0	0.98×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$593 847 coins	9.1%	3	2.3	1.32×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 667	$506 723 coins	1.2%	1	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$244 349 coins	7.5%	4	4.5	0.88×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 154	$228 326 coins	2.3%	2	1.5	1.36×
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 25	$180 257 coins	11.1%	12	9.1	1.32×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$94.50 135 coins	13.1%	19	20.4	0.93×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 17	$84.70 121 coins	7.8%	8	13.6	0.59×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	14.0%	$45.13 64.47 coins	9.7%	31	31.8	0.98×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	18.0%	$26.08 37.25 coins	7.2%	45	40.9	1.10×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	21.0%	$24.53 35.05 coins	7.9%	49	47.7	1.03×
AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	23.1%	$21.95 31.35 coins	7.8%	49	52.3	0.94×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$71.39102 coins$1,1201,600 coins15.69x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$71.36102 coins$1,0861,552 coins15.22x2d

★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$71.36102 coins$8461,209 coins11.86x1d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$71.39102 coins$649927 coins9.09x3d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$71.39102 coins$649927 coins9.09x6d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert$71.36102 coins$593847 coins8.31x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert$71.36102 coins$593847 coins8.31x2d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert$71.39102 coins$593847 coins8.31x3d

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryd3ad$71.39102 coins$506723 coins7.09x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$71.36102 coins$180257 coins2.52x1h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$71.36102 coins$24.5335.05 coins0.34x1h

AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$71.36102 coins$21.9531.35 coins0.31x1h

★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertBloodgames$71.36102 coins$180257 coins2.52x1h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$71.36102 coins$24.5335.05 coins0.34x3h

AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$71.36102 coins$21.9531.35 coins0.31x3h

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertCall me Johnny$71.36102 coins$94.50135 coins1.32x3h

SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted$71.36102 coins$26.0837.25 coins0.37x5h

AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$71.36102 coins$21.9531.35 coins0.31x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$71.36	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$70.94	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$71.39	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 23.5%extraordinary 0.4%classified 14.0%restricted 18.0%mil spec 44.0%best hit $1,120 (15.69x)