Carnival
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$171.34
245 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $155.76 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.84%
119 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 119 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$172246 coins$3,3324,760 coins19.34x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Rubyglock$172246 coins$2,0512,930 coins11.90x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby$172246 coins$2,0512,930 coins11.90x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$172246 coins$1,2481,783 coins7.24x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$172246 coins$1,2481,783 coins7.24x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$172246 coins$1,2481,783 coins7.24x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyPontus$171245 coins$679970 coins3.96x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubygurkan$172246 coins$664949 coins3.86x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · legendary · Phase 4$172246 coins$599855 coins3.47x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyPontus$171245 coins$679970 coins3.96x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$171245 coins$261373 coins1.52x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedIStoorm CSGORoll.com$172246 coins$1.792.56 coins0.01x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$172246 coins$262374 coins1.52x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · legendary · Phase 4$172246 coins$599855 coins3.47x
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$172246 coins$209299 coins1.21x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $171 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $171 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $172 | 90.91% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.0%legendary 3.2%classified 33.9%industrial 6.8%restricted 15.7%Mythical 7.0%mil spec 8.4%best hit $3,332 (19.34x)