Carvery

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$22.23

31.76 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $20.21 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.20%

3,607 openings, odds method

Variance

8.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

105.49%±27.01449 openings

7 days

89.24%±10.173,149 openings

30 days

87.20%±9.513,607 openings

since tracking started

87.20%±9.513,607 openings

77.0%105.0%133.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	449	105.49%±27.0	+1.1σ	odds
7d	3,149	89.24%±10.2	−0.3σ	odds
30d	3,607	87.20%±9.51	−0.8σ	odds
All	3,607	87.20%±9.51	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,607 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$302 432 coins	15.0%	30	36.1	0.83×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$301 430 coins	14.9%	34	36.1	0.94×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$295 421 coins	14.6%	38	36.1	1.05×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$241 344 coins	11.9%	28	36.1	0.78×
★ StatTrak™ Classic KnifeStatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$198 283 coins	9.8%	45	36.1	1.25×
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$175 250 coins	8.7%	29	36.1	0.80×
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$144 206 coins	7.1%	41	36.1	1.14×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$137 196 coins	6.8%	28	36.1	0.78×
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$119 170 coins	5.9%	43	36.1	1.19×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$108 154 coins	5.3%	36	36.1	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	1,635	1623.2	1.01×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	1,620	1623.2	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$22.2331.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x28m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$22.2331.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x28m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerRelaxa *$22.2331.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x28m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$22.2331.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x28m

★ Flip Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$22.2331.76 coins$119170 coins5.35x28m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$22.2331.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x31m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$22.2331.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x31m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$22.23	90.90%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$22.41	90.91%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.0%consumer 90.0%best hit —