Catch

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.28

23.26 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $14.80 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.32%

13.6K openings, odds method

Variance

15.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 36

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

70.88%±17.981,778 openings

7 days

81.97%±7.0811.5K openings

30 days

84.32%±6.5113.6K openings

since tracking started

84.32%±6.5113.6K openings

52.5%72.0%91.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.81% – 90.83%, 13,572 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,778	70.88%±18.0	−2.2σ	odds
7d	11.5K	81.97%±7.08	−2.5σ	odds
30d	13.6K	84.32%±6.51	−2.0σ	odds
All	13.6K	84.32%±6.51	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$931 1,330 coins	12.6%	23	27.2	0.85×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 500	$436 623 coins	5.9%	24	27.2	0.88×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$395 564 coins	5.3%	25	27.2	0.92×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$279 398 coins	3.8%	27	27.2	0.99×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$210 300 coins	14.2%	129	135.8	0.95×
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$197 281 coins	13.3%	123	135.8	0.91×
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 500	$193 276 coins	2.6%	27	27.2	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$169 242 coins	11.4%	108	135.8	0.80×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$124 177 coins	8.4%	133	135.8	0.98×
Sticker \| v4lde (Gold) \| London 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 100	$100 143 coins	6.8%	130	135.8	0.96×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$98.70 141 coins	6.7%	134	135.8	0.99×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$58.98 84.26 coins	4.0%	151	135.8	1.11×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$39.78 56.83 coins	2.7%	132	135.8	0.97×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$35.01 50.02 coins	2.4%	151	135.8	1.11×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	6,132	6110.1	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	6,129	6110.1	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$16.4223.46 coins$9441,349 coins57.50x3d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$16.4223.46 coins$9441,349 coins57.50x4d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$16.4223.46 coins$9441,349 coins57.50x5d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryBrumla$16.4223.46 coins$9441,349 coins57.50x5d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$16.4223.46 coins$9441,349 coins57.50x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$16.2823.26 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$16.2823.26 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$16.2823.26 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$16.2823.26 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerBasse$16.2823.26 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$16.2823.26 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$16.2823.26 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$16.28	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$16.34	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.42	90.90%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 3.2%covert 4.4%classified 1.2%legendary 0.2%restricted 1.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $944 (57.50x)