Caveman
A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.35
11.93 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $7.59 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.23%
14.4K openings, odds method
Variance
6.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$8.3511.93 coins$57.3681.95 coins6.87x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $8.35 | 90.89% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $8.35 | 90.93% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $8.35 | 90.94% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.35 | 90.90% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.44 | 90.94% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.55 | 90.89% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.9%extraordinary 0.1%epic 0.3%classified 5.2%mil spec 1.5%restricted 7.0%exotic 10.0%high 60.0%Rare 15.0%best hit $489 (58.59x)