Cerberus

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$70.71

101 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $64.28 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.85%

622 openings, odds method

Variance

14.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

66.39%±32.78520 openings

30 days

71.85%±29.99622 openings

since tracking started

71.85%±29.99622 openings

25.0%142.5%260.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	142.50%±116.7	—	odds
7d	520	66.39%±32.8	−1.5σ	odds
30d	622	71.85%±30.0	−1.2σ	odds
All	622	71.85%±30.0	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 622 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 10,000	$14.4K 20,545 coins	2.2%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 4,000	$6,780 9,685 coins	2.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$5,548 7,925 coins	4.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$984 1,406 coins	30.6%	9	12.4	0.72×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$502 717 coins	3.9%	1	3.1	0.32×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$395 564 coins	12.3%	14	12.4	1.13×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 241	$277 396 coins	1.8%	4	2.6	1.55×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$269 384 coins	8.4%	11	12.4	0.88×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$126 180 coins	5.9%	16	18.7	0.86×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$121 173 coins	9.4%	37	31.1	1.19×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$99.40 142 coins	7.7%	24	31.1	0.77×
AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 20	$51.72 73.88 coins	4.0%	28	31.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$40.13 57.33 coins	3.1%	24	31.1	0.77×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Watchdog (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$20.69 29.56 coins	3.2%	62	62.2	1.00×
Charm \| Diner Dogcharm · #d32ce6	20.0%	$1.26 1.8 coins	0.4%	143	124.4	1.15×
Sticker \| Baby Cerberussticker · Rare	40.0%	$0.10 0.15 coins	0.1%	249	248.8	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$71.24102 coins$9881,411 coins13.86x4d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$71.24102 coins$9881,411 coins13.86x5d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$71.24102 coins$9881,411 coins13.86x7d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertPontus$70.71101 coins$9841,406 coins13.92x12h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertKermgg$70.71101 coins$9841,406 coins13.92x13h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$70.71101 coins$9841,406 coins13.92x1d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertMusse$70.71101 coins$9841,406 coins13.92x2d

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Factory New)gloves · legendary$71.24102 coins$503719 coins7.06x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Baby Cerberussticker · Rare$70.71101 coins$0.100.15 coins0.00x11h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedPontus$70.71101 coins$99.40142 coins1.41x11h

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$70.71101 coins$20.6929.56 coins0.29x11h

Charm | Diner Dogcharm · #d32ce6$70.71101 coins$1.261.8 coins0.02x11h

Sticker | Baby Cerberussticker · Rare$70.71101 coins$0.100.15 coins0.00x11h

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specPontus$70.71101 coins$20.6929.56 coins0.29x11h

Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedPontus$70.71101 coins$269384 coins3.80x11h

AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert$70.71101 coins$121173 coins1.71x11h

Charm | Diner Dogcharm · #d32ce6Pontus$70.71101 coins$1.261.8 coins0.02x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$70.71	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$70.95	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$71.24	90.91%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%remarkable 0.0%covert 9.0%legendary 0.9%restricted 2.0%rare 8.0%classified 10.0%mil spec 10.0%#d32ce6 20.0%Rare 40.0%best hit $988 (13.86x)