Chained
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.62
0.88 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $0.56 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.98%
76.6K openings, odds method
Variance
13.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 76.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $189 270 coins | 3.4% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× |
| Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 80 | $8.09 11.55 coins | 18.0% | 935 | 959.7 | 0.97× |
| Tec-9 | Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 400 | $7.70 11 coins | 3.4% | 201 | 191.9 | 1.05× |
| P2000 | Red FragCam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $2.88 4.11 coins | 46.2% | 6,853 | 6909.6 | 0.99× |
| P90 | Module (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $1.22 1.74 coins | 19.6% | 6,986 | 6909.6 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 10.5% | $0.41 0.58 coins | 7.6% | 8,066 | 8053.5 | 1.00× |
| Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 15,460 | 15354.6 | 1.01× |
| Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 15,301 | 15354.6 | 1.00× |
| FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.7% | 22,965 | 23031.9 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$0.620.88 coins$0.410.58 coins0.66x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$0.620.88 coins$0.410.58 coins0.66x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.62 | 90.93% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.62 | 91.29% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.63 | 91.07% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.63 | 91.13% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%mil spec 30.0%consumer 70.0%best hit $193 (305.6x)