Chanced
A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$81.43
116 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $74.03 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.61%
91 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 91 openings and 22.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryGohan$81.43116 coins$223319 coins2.74x
★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covertGohan$81.43116 coins$65.0792.95 coins0.80x
M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified🌌Satoru Gojo🌌$81.87117 coins$19.5127.87 coins0.24x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $81.43 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $81.56 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $81.87 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 37.3%classified 26.5%extraordinary 11.2%restricted 25.0%best hit —