Chaos
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.27
30.38 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $19.33 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.44%
993 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 993 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMiltsukkaaaw :3$21.2730.38 coins$24.2234.6 coins1.14x
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedCousin of po$21.2730.38 coins$24.2234.6 coins1.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $21.27 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.27 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $20.81 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $20.82 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.82 | 90.89% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.7%classified 41.0%restricted 10.0%mil spec 33.3%best hit —