Cheatcode

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$22.51

32.16 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $20.46 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.06%

10.8K openings, odds method

Variance

10.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.27%±18.471,190 openings

7 days

89.95%±6.878,628 openings

30 days

91.06%±6.1510.8K openings

since tracking started

91.06%±6.1510.8K openings

74.0%93.3%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,190	93.27%±18.5	+0.3σ	odds
7d	8,628	89.95%±6.87	−0.3σ	odds
30d	10.8K	91.06%±6.15	+0.0σ	odds
All	10.8K	91.06%±6.15	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200,000	$1,292 1,845 coins	0.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20,000	$865 1,235 coins	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$646 923 coins	0.9%	3	3.2	0.93×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 333,333	$569 813 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 5,000	$563 804 coins	0.6%	2	2.2	0.93×
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$493 705 coins	0.2%	1	1.1	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$489 699 coins	12.0%	64	54.0	1.19×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 200	$377 539 coins	9.2%	54	54.0	1.00×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$350 500 coins	8.6%	56	54.0	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$314 448 coins	7.7%	50	54.0	0.93×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 200	$295 421 coins	7.2%	42	54.0	0.78×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$279 398 coins	6.8%	49	54.0	0.91×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 200	$267 382 coins	6.5%	55	54.0	1.02×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$232 332 coins	5.7%	55	54.0	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$204 291 coins	5.0%	61	54.0	1.13×
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| DreamHack 2014sticker · high	1 in 200	$204 291 coins	5.0%	55	54.0	1.02×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$174 249 coins	4.3%	50	54.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$152 217 coins	3.7%	48	54.0	0.89×
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$151 215 coins	3.7%	55	54.0	1.02×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$126 180 coins	3.1%	54	54.0	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$124 177 coins	3.0%	50	54.0	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 200	$106 151 coins	2.6%	58	54.0	1.07×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$77.00 110 coins	1.9%	55	54.0	1.02×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$40.21 57.44 coins	1.5%	72	81.0	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 146	$21.34 30.48 coins	0.7%	64	73.9	0.87×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	4,850	4859.1	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	4,894	4859.1	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$22.5032.14 coins$1,2921,845 coins57.41x8d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$22.5032.14 coins$655935 coins29.09x3d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$22.5032.14 coins$655935 coins29.09x4d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$22.5132.16 coins$646923 coins28.70x15h

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$22.5032.14 coins$563804 coins25.02x6d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphireDer beste Uwe$22.5032.14 coins$563804 coins25.02x8d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$22.5032.14 coins$513733 coins22.81x2d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertGAMASIAK$22.5032.14 coins$513733 coins22.81x3d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertbot maor$22.5032.14 coins$513733 coins22.81x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$22.5132.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$22.5132.16 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerRelaxa *$22.5132.16 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$22.5132.16 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$22.5132.16 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerRelaxa *$22.5132.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$22.5132.16 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$22.5132.16 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$22.51	90.90%	27
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$22.55	90.90%	27
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$22.50	90.92%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.5%covert 5.8%rare 0.5%classified 1.5%high 0.5%restricted 1.2%consumer 90.0%best hit $1,292 (57.41x)