Checkmate

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$143.16

205 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $130.15 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.51%

3,204 openings, odds method

Variance

30.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 94

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

257 openings · below min

7 days

85.02%±20.722,693 openings

30 days

83.51%±18.993,204 openings

since tracking started

83.51%±18.993,204 openings

2.0%69.8%137.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	257	69.65%±67.1	—	odds
7d	2,693	85.02%±20.7	−0.6σ	odds
30d	3,204	83.51%±19.0	−0.8σ	odds
All	3,204	83.51%±19.0	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,204 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base	1 in 10,000	$25K 35,730 coins	1.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$9,342 13,345 coins	1.4%	2	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 200	$8,869 12,670 coins	34.1%	16	16.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$6,787 9,695 coins	1.6%	1	1.0	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 200	$3,164 4,520 coins	12.2%	14	16.0	0.87×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$3,024 4,320 coins	11.6%	12	16.0	0.75×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$2,132 3,045 coins	8.2%	13	16.0	0.81×
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$1,559 2,227 coins	6.0%	14	16.0	0.87×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$995 1,421 coins	3.8%	17	16.0	1.06×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 200	$824 1,177 coins	3.2%	9	16.0	0.56×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 200	$767 1,095 coins	2.9%	14	16.0	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$540 772 coins	2.1%	11	16.0	0.69×
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$517 739 coins	2.0%	10	16.0	0.62×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 106	$370 529 coins	2.7%	33	30.1	1.10×
ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil)other · base	1 in 200	$365 522 coins	1.4%	22	16.0	1.37×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$216 308 coins	1.7%	38	32.0	1.19×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$190 271 coins	0.7%	11	16.0	0.69×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$174 249 coins	0.7%	21	16.0	1.31×
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$174 249 coins	1.3%	22	32.0	0.69×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$151 216 coins	0.6%	9	16.0	0.56×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	1,514	1441.8	1.05×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	1,401	1441.8	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$143205 coins$9,34213,345 coins65.25x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$143205 coins$9,34213,345 coins65.25x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$143205 coins$8,86912,670 coins61.95x20h

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$143205 coins$8,86912,670 coins61.95x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$143205 coins$8,86912,670 coins61.95x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$143205 coins$8,86912,670 coins61.84x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$143205 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x45m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$143205 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x45m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$143205 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x45m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$143205 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$143205 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$143205 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$143	90.91%	22
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$144	90.91%	22
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$144	90.91%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbase 0.5%covert 6.6%high 0.5%epic 0.5%legendary 0.5%restricted 0.9%extraordinary 0.5%consumer 90.0%best hit $9,342 (65.25x)