Chop Chop

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$370.10

529 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $336.45 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.10%

442 openings, odds method

Variance

8.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

72 openings · below min

7 days

82.92%±29.49365 openings

30 days

84.10%±26.79442 openings

since tracking started

84.10%±26.79442 openings

53.0%123.8%194.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	72	127.18%±66.5	—	odds
7d	365	82.92%±29.5	−0.5σ	odds
30d	442	84.10%±26.8	−0.5σ	odds
All	442	84.10%±26.8	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 445 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 500	$17.6K 25,125 coins	10.5%	1	0.9	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 222	$6,790 9,700 coins	9.1%	1	2.0	0.50×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 333	$5,978 8,540 coins	5.3%	3	1.3	2.25×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$3,892 5,560 coins	11.6%	3	4.5	0.67×
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 87	$2,079 2,970 coins	7.1%	1	5.1	0.20×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 37	$1,090 1,557 coins	8.7%	15	12.0	1.25×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 77	$1,018 1,454 coins	3.9%	6	5.8	1.04×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 50	$799 1,142 coins	4.8%	3	8.9	0.34×
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 25	$784 1,120 coins	9.3%	14	17.8	0.79×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 31	$445 636 coins	4.3%	9	14.5	0.62×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 20	$410 585 coins	6.1%	23	22.3	1.03×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 12	$410 585 coins	10.5%	46	38.5	1.20×
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert	20.0%	$49.90 71.29 coins	3.0%	91	89.0	1.02×
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	20.0%	$45.15 64.5 coins	2.7%	88	89.0	0.99×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	30.0%	$35.25 50.35 coins	3.1%	141	133.5	1.06×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$370529 coins$17.6K25,125 coins47.52x22h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$374535 coins$6,8299,755 coins18.25x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$374535 coins$6,0768,680 coins16.24x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldBlair$374535 coins$6,0768,680 coins16.24x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$370529 coins$5,9788,540 coins16.15x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$370529 coins$5,9788,540 coins16.15x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$374535 coins$4,0535,790 coins10.83x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$370529 coins$3,8925,560 coins10.52x21h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$370529 coins$1,0181,454 coins2.75x5m

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$370529 coins$410585 coins1.11x6m

★ Gut Knife | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert$370529 coins$49.9071.29 coins0.13x1h

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert$370529 coins$35.2550.35 coins0.10x1h

★ Gut Knife | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert$370529 coins$49.9071.29 coins0.13x4h

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covertHenkie3310$370529 coins$35.2550.35 coins0.10x5h

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$370529 coins$410585 coins1.11x6h

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert$370529 coins$35.2550.35 coins0.10x10h

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covertPontus$370529 coins$35.2550.35 coins0.10x11h

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert$370529 coins$35.2550.35 coins0.10x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$370	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$371	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$374	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 4.2%covert 95.8%best hit $17.6K (47.52x)