Circus

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$180.99

259 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $164.54 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.12%

24 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

41.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

24 openings · below min

30 days

24 openings · below min

since tracking started

24 openings · below min

63.0%87.0%111.0%

Small sample. 24 openings and 9.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	24	87.12%±23.4	—	odds
30d	24	87.12%±23.4	—	odds
All	24	87.12%±23.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| rain (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 133	$704 1,005 coins	3.2%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| bondik (Gold) \| London 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 400	$603 862 coins	0.9%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$561 801 coins	11.6%	0	0.8	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$299 427 coins	4.5%	0	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 67	$285 407 coins	2.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14	$284 406 coins	12.1%	4	1.7	2.38×
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 18	$178 254 coins	6.1%	1	1.3	0.74×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$159 227 coins	19.3%	12	4.8	2.50×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	20.0%	$134 192 coins	16.3%	0	4.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	18.0%	$107 153 coins	11.7%	2	4.3	0.46×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 11	$104 148 coins	5.7%	1	2.2	0.46×
★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	12.0%	$81.90 117 coins	6.0%	4	2.9	1.39×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.